The BTC Register/Ownership scenarios
BTC Register
Snapshot: 17 Sept 2026

Ownership scenarios

When could retail fall below 50%?

These scenarios show how the estimated retail share of bitcoin could change as companies, funds, and governments add to their holdings.
Every scenario starts at 70.1% estimated retail, using the same snapshot as the overview. Fund holdings include 784,526 BTC in IBIT. Other funds are missing from the total, which can make the retail estimate too high.

The 50% threshold

Estimated retail share of circulating supply

70.1%as of 17 Sept 2026
Estimated retail Bitcoin holdings: comparable snapshots and three acquisition scenariosThe current retail estimate is 70.1 percent on 17 Sept 2026. The calculation uses 784.53K BTC in funds, with the same snapshot and calculation as the overview. The plotted history starts on 31 Aug 2026 and uses the same fund coverage and loss assumption throughout. Older estimates with different inputs are archived separately on the ownership scenarios page. Source dates can differ within a snapshot.0%25%50%75%100%2026203020342038204217 Sept50% of supply31 Aug 2026: 70.1% estimated retail, same fund coverage7 Sept 2026: 70.1% estimated retail, same fund coverage14 Sept 2026: 70.1% estimated retail, same fund coverage17 Sept 2026: 70.1% estimated retail, same fund coverageSteady: 50% on 18 Sept 2032Fast: 50% on 1 May 2030
Comparable snapshots Slow Steady Fast
Comparable history starts 31 Aug 2026. Fund coverage: IBIT only. Dashed lines show assumed buying rates. View assumptions

Slow accumulation

Sept 2044

Assumes 250,000 BTC added to identified holdings each year.

Date the retail estimate falls below 50% of supply.

Steady accumulation

Sept 2032

Assumes 750,000 BTC added to identified holdings each year.

Date the retail estimate falls below 50% of supply.

Fast accumulation

May 2030

Assumes 1,200,000 BTC added to identified holdings each year.

Date the retail estimate falls below 50% of supply.

Starting point

17 Sept 2026
Circulating supply20,085,571
Identified holdings2,295,705
Estimated retail14,089,866
Holdings at the 50% threshold6,342,786
Additional holdings needed today4,047,080 BTC

How to read the scenarios

Each line assumes a constant annual increase in identified holdings and 164,250 newly issued BTC per year until the 21 million cap. The loss assumption stays at 3,700,000 BTC.

That is a simplified supply model. It does not model future halvings, market prices, or changes in buying behavior. Crossing 50% means the retail estimate is less than half of circulating supply. The remainder includes identified holdings and estimated lost coins.

Full methodology →

Comparable snapshots

These are the observations plotted above. Each uses IBIT-only fund coverage and the same loss assumption. Source dates may differ.

4 observations
Comparable ownership snapshots
DateRetail (est.)Identified BTCBasisSource note
31 Aug 202670.1%2,302,483Includes reported dataCoinGecko company data: 179 companies. Corrected to the overview's recorded fund holdings: 802,823 BTC (IBIT only). Earlier observations use broader fund estimates; the change in coverage does not represent buying or selling.
7 Sept 202670.1%2,313,171Includes reported dataCoinGecko company data: 180 companies. Uses the overview's recorded fund holdings: 802,823 BTC (ibit-only). Fund and government source dates are unchanged.
14 Sept 202670.1%2,314,546Includes reported dataCoinGecko company data: 180 companies. Uses the overview's recorded fund holdings: 802,823 BTC (ibit-only). Fund and government source dates are unchanged.
17 Sept 202670.1%2,295,705Includes reported dataCurrent snapshot. Fund coverage: IBIT only, holdings dated 2026-09-15. Government records retain their original dates.
Earlier estimates — different fund coverage (13)

These records are kept for reference and are excluded from the chart. They used broader fund estimates and cannot be compared directly with the current series. The old 66.6% and later 70.1% figures used different inputs; the difference does not show a transfer to retail holders.

Archived estimates with different coverage
DateRetail (est.)Identified BTCBasisSource note
11 Aug 202077.7%421,454ReconstructedStrategy reported 21,454 BTC in its first purchase announcement. Fund holdings are estimated from GBTC.
31 Dec 202077.3%520,470ReconstructedStrategy reported 70,470 BTC at year-end 2020. The fund balance is a reconstructed GBTC estimate.
31 Dec 202176.0%831,400ReconstructedStrategy reported 124,391 BTC in its 10-K. Other company holdings are reconstructed. El Salvador began purchases in September 2021.
31 Dec 202276.2%875,000ReconstructedStrategy reported 132,500 BTC in its 10-K. Other categories are reconstructed; GBTC accounts for most estimated fund holdings.
31 Dec 202376.1%980,000ReconstructedStrategy reported 189,150 BTC in its 10-K. Other holdings are reconstructed for the period before US spot ETF launches.
11 Jan 202476.0%994,220Includes reported dataGBTC converted with approximately 619,220 BTC, according to a TrendSpider recap. Other categories include estimates.
31 Dec 202471.7%1,910,000ReconstructedStrategy reported 447,470 BTC in its 10-K. The remaining company holdings and first-year ETF total are reconstructed.
25 Apr 202571.3%1,995,000Includes reported dataBitcoin Magazine reported approximately 965,000 BTC in US spot ETFs. Company holdings are interpolated toward the August 2025 observation.
1 Aug 202569.6%2,351,861Includes reported dataCoinGecko data cited by Kazemikhasragh et al. listed 102 public companies with 1,001,861 BTC. Other categories include estimates.
7 Apr 202667.1%2,890,000Includes reported dataInvesting.com / Bitwise reporting put US spot ETFs at approximately 1.5 million BTC. Corporate holdings are interpolated.
15 Aug 202666.6%3,000,705Includes reported dataCoinGecko company data plus two Look Into Bitcoin records: 181 companies. Fund holdings retain the April 2026 estimate of 1.5 million BTC.
17 Aug 202666.6%2,999,650Includes reported dataCoinGecko company data: 179 companies. Fund holdings retain the April 2026 estimate of 1.5 million BTC.
24 Aug 202666.6%2,999,660Includes reported dataCoinGecko company data: 179 companies. Fund holdings retain the April 2026 estimate of 1.5 million BTC.